As TikTok Shop cements itself as a central force in U.S. ecommerce sales, the platform is reshaping how brands capture holiday demand. Over the past two years, TikTok has evolved into a primary driver of product discovery, brand awareness, and social-led commerce, particularly during Q4, when consumer engagement spikes and GMV surges across categories like beauty, wellness, home goods, and electronics.
Against this backdrop, three brands (QVC, Medicube, and Dr. Melaxin) are demonstrating the momentum, category alignment, and revenue performance required to emerge as leading contenders for the 2025 holiday season.
Their year-to-date results, combined with multi-quarter strength, mirror the patterns of last year’s holiday winners and offer strong early indicators that these brands are positioned to be among the most successful on TikTok Shop during the critical year-end shopping period.
Key Takeaways
- QVC, Medicube, and Dr. Melaxin show leading indicators of holiday dominance, including multi-quarter revenue strength, viral SKUs, and category alignment.
- Beauty will drive disproportionate Q4 sales, positioning clinically oriented skincare as a top trend.
- These early signals offer strategic insights for retailers, investors, and anyone in the ecommerce space looking to understand the consumer demand for the 2025 holiday season.
Evaluating 2025 Momentum: Brands Trending Toward Q4 Dominance
The Charm team analyzed 2025 TikTok Shop performance to see the brands succeeding in the U.S. and globally. QVC, Medicube, and Dr. Melaxin are among the top brands on a U.S. and international scale.
QVC: A Consistent High Performer With Multi-Channel Strength
Across U.S. TikTok Shop sales from August through October 2025, QVC ranks as the #1 shop, surpassing $31M in revenue in that period alone. QVC also appears in global rankings, where it holds a top position with $31M in global revenue from the same window, reinforcing its ability to convert across markets.
QVC’s historical strength in television commerce has translated seamlessly into social commerce, allowing it to leverage familiar product education formats and authoritative presenters in an environment where real-time demonstration drives conversion. Its consistent Q3 performance historically correlates strongly with elevated Q4 sales.
Medicube: One of 2025’s Strongest Beauty Performers
Medicube ranks as one of the top TikTok brands, with $27M in U.S. revenue between August and October 2025, making it the second-highest U.S. shop in that timeframe.
Medicube’s product strategy, centered around clinically positioned skincare, performs well in before-and-after formats, aligns with the types of purchases that dominated Q4 in 2024.
Dr. Melaxin: The Breakout Brand of 2025
Dr. Melaxin has emerged as one of 2025’s most notable global climbers. The brand generated $24M in U.S. revenue from August to October 2025 and holds its place as third top shop in the U.S. and fourth top globally during this time frame.
Perhaps more significantly, its flagship product, the Peel Shot Glow Rice Ampoule Duo, generated $11M from August through October, ranking as the #1 product in the U.S. for that period.
Dr. Melaxin’s product-led virality, combined with a strong pipeline of creator content, indicates that it is entering Q4 with the type of momentum that typically results in holiday-season success.
How 2024 Winners Inform 2025 Holiday Predictions
Looking back at November to December 2024 provides critical context for forecasting 2025 leaders. Last year, top shops during this time period on U.S. TikTok Shop included:
- Tarte – $22.4M
- Halara – $15.2M
- Goli – $15M
- Wavytalk – $11.9M
- MINISO – $11.2M
- Medicube – $10.3M
Patterns consistent across the 2024 winners include:
- Strong Q3 performance prior to holiday acceleration
- Product-led sales velocity, often driven by a single hero SKU
- Multi-channel conversion: a mix of viral video, Shopping Mall exposure, and live selling
- Giftable price points, typically under $50
- Success in beauty, wellness, and accessible lifestyle categories
QVC, Medicube, and Dr. Melaxin align cleanly with these criteria:
- All three are top performers in Q3 2025.
- Each features at least one top-selling hero SKU.
- All operate in categories with proven Q4 lift.
This historical correlation strengthens the forecast of a strong Q4 performance.
Key Performance Drivers Supporting a Strong U.S. Holiday 2025
Several macro- and brand-specific drivers position these three brands to capitalize on Q4 demand.
Category Alignment With Q4 Consumer Behavior
Beauty, wellness, home appliances, and giftable sets have historically generated the highest GMV during holiday shopping on TikTok Shop. At least two of the three projected winners, Medicube and Dr. Melaxin, sit directly in the highest-performing category (Beauty & Personal Care), while QVC straddles multiple holiday-forward segments including beauty, home, and electronics.
Strong Pre-Holiday Product Momentum
The August to October period serves as a proving ground for products that often convert into holiday bestsellers. Data from this window reveals:
- Dr. Melaxin’s Ampoule Duo ($11M)
- Goli’s Zero Sugar Trio ($8M)
- Ninja FrostVault ($7.2M)
- PetPivot Cat Litter Box ($6.7M)
- Medicube’s Glass Glow Set ($6.7M)
This group shows that both Medicube and Dr. Melaxin already possess Q3 hero SKUs that outperform the broader category.
Multi-Channel Conversion Strength
TikTok Shop sales are generated through three primary channels:
- Pre-recorded video content
- Shopping Mall discovery
- Live selling
QVC’s dominance in live commerce, combined with Medicube and Dr. Melaxin’s strong presence in creator-driven video content, ensures all three brands are leveraging the full spectrum of TikTok’s conversion mechanics.
Price Point Accessibility
Across the beauty cateogry, the strongest revenue bands tend to fall between $10 and $25. Both Medicube and Dr. Melaxin offer products, and especially gift sets, at price points that align with this high-conversion range.
Brand-by-Brand Analysis of Q4 Readiness
1. QVC: A Category-Hybrid Powerhouse
QVC’s strength lies in its ability to operate at scale across multiple categories while leveraging a conversion strategy deeply aligned with consumer behavior on TikTok Shop.
Performance Drivers:
- Live-selling expertise can support the sales efforts of pre-recorded short-form video.
- Cross-category assortment ensures relevance during multiple holiday peaks (beauty, electronics, home).
- High creator count expands reach and drives sales with effective content.
QVC’s has consistently had strong performance, increasing in sales quarter over quarter and there seems to be no slowdowns leading into the holiday shopping season of Q4.
2. Medicube: Clinical Skincare With Sustained Retail Momentum
Medicube drove $27M from August through October in the U.S. alone, and durig that time period revenue was increasing each month. The brand has become a fixture in the top 10 U.S. TikTok Shop brands, with product-level traction that accelerates during Q4.
Performance Drivers:
- Bundles drive sales: Having multi-product bundles, such as their eight-piece glass glow skincare set (their top-selling product) has driven sales and cart size among shoppers.
- Proven creator partnerships: consistent presence among top videos.
- Holiday-ready product architecture: skincare sets perform disproportionately well in Q4.
Medicube’s combination of clinically framed value propositions and creator amplification mirrors the structure of past holiday winners like Tarte and Wavytalk.
3. Dr. Melaxin: The Highest-Trajectory Newcomer in 2025
Dr. Melaxin’s trajectory closely resembles breakout brands from prior years, rapid scaling, a hero SKU with viral visibility, and multi-channel adoption across the TikTok Shop ecosystem.
Performance Drivers:
- #1 U.S. product (Aug–Oct 2025): The brand’s Ampoule Duo signals exceptional Q4 potential.
- Category depth: skincare categories maintain one of the highest holiday multipliers.
- Creator velocity: high volume of unpaid creator posts indicates authentic consumer pull.
If the brand’s current trajectory continues, Dr. Melaxin could become one of the most significant new entrants in the 2025 holiday cycle.
Outlook for the 2025 Holiday Season
With November and December representing the peak of TikTok Shop demand, current performance indicators signal that QVC, Medicube, and Dr. Melaxin are structurally well-positioned to outperform competitors.
Expect the following trends to define the season:
- Beauty will likely dominate GMV, replicating 2024 patterns.
- Live selling will see heightened contribution, favoring QVC’s long-standing strengths.
- Product bundles and gift sets will outperform individual SKUs, benefiting Medicube and Dr. Melaxin’s sets.
- Seasonal creator amplification will further accelerate existing viral products, particularly skincare treatments and clinical formulations.
These factors collectively indicate that the brands already leading in Q3 will extend their leadership into Q4.
Charm Data Signals a Clear Set of 2025 Holiday Front-Runners
Charm’s analysis points to QVC, Medicube, and Dr. Melaxin among the top brands structurally positioned for holiday success on TikTok Shop. Their revenue trajectories, sustained creator engagement, and alignment with historically high-performing categories mirror the patterns seen in last year’s top winners.
As TikTok Shop accelerates into the peak retail cycle, brands with multi-channel resilience and high-velocity SKUs will capture disproportionate share.
Book a demo with Charm today to access the data behind these predictions, explore category-level revenue trends, and identify the next generation of breakout brands before your competitors do.
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